Climate Challenge: A new independent assessment from 440 Megatonnes, a project of the Canadian Climate Institute, suggests that emissions from oil and gas and buildings continued to climb in 2022, so undermining Canada’s success in reducing emissions overall.
Climate Challenge: Oil, Gas, and Buildings Emissions Hinder Canada’s Progress
According to the Canadian government’s Early Estimate of National Emissions for 2022, the country’s overall emissions rose by 2.1% from the previous year, or by 14.2 Mt CO2e. While there was a modest increase in emissions in 2022, overall numbers were still 6.3% lower than in 2005. By 2030, Canada aims to reduce emissions by 40-45% from 2005 levels.
Nearly three-quarters (72%) of the overall rise in 2022 was attributable to emissions from oil and gas extraction and buildings, continuing a longer-term trend of gradually rising emissions from both sectors. Increased heating demand from the colder winter was a major contributor to the increase in emissions from buildings. Since 2005, carbon emissions in both sectors have increased significantly, in stark contrast to other industries, such as energy, where emissions have reduced by 56% in the same time period.
Emissions in 2022 were increased by a total of 37.5 Mt CO2e over the previous year, primarily due to robust economic development and an increase in energy intensity. The effects of climate policy and market drivers, such as the deployment of clean energy technology, lowered emissions by 22.9 Mt, offsetting the impact of this increase and leading to a net increase of 14.7 Mt.
Rising costs indicate a need for federal and provincial governments to work together on policy. The Clean Electricity Regulations, the Green Building Strategy, and the upcoming emissions cap for oil and gas are just a few examples of these initiatives. Prior Institute research from 2022 found that Canada could achieve its goals with swift and successful implementation of the federal government’s 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan and further action from the provinces and territories. Later this year, a revised study will be made available.
The Institute’s goal in releasing this Early Estimate of National Emissions is to facilitate more timely and evidence-based decision making regarding Canada’s climate progress in the eight months leading up to the official National Inventory Report.
When the federal government issued its national inventory in 2018, the official data was consistent with the 440 Megatonnes forecast for 2021.
QUOTES
“Our Early Estimate of Canada’s 2022 emissions shows that climate policy and clean technology are cutting emissions —but that progress is being swamped by the continued rise in emissions from oil and gas and buildings. Acting quickly to cap emissions from oil and gas, reducing methane leaks and expanding clean electricity will accelerate our progress, while building a more prosperous and competitive future for Canada.”
– Rick Smith, President, Canadian Climate Institute
“This Early Estimate was conceived to improve decision-making by tracking Canada’s climate progress as close to real-time as possible. The 2022 Estimate shows some sectors are a bigger cause for concern than others. When emissions from just two sectors, oil and gas and buildings, account for nearly three-quarters of the total increase in emissions last year, policy action for those sectors should be a top priority for all governments in Canada.”
– Dave Sawyer, Principal Economist, Canadian Climate Institute
