Experts predict a 2.5% COLA for Social Security in 2025, the smallest since 2021, due to cooling inflation and rising consumer goods costs.
COLA Increase 2025 Projection: Experts estimate that the Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) for Social Security in 2025 will likely be around 2.5%. This figure has been adjusted down from previous forecasts, as inflation has been cooling throughout 2024. Although this increase helps beneficiaries keep up with inflation, it will be the smallest COLA since 2021, when it was 1.3%. For comparison, the COLA for 2024 was 3.2%, reflecting higher inflation at the time.
It bases this measurement of rising consumer goods costs on the Customer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), which is experienced by a portion of the US population.
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It figures out the average cost of things like food, drinks, housing, and transportation. When the CPI-W goes up, it usually means that inflation is going up. Next, the SSA uses this data to figure out how much Social Security or Social Security with Disability Insurance (SSDI) to pay each person. The COLA helps them do this.
In 2024, the COLA was set at 3.2%. This means that Social Security and SSDI payments went up by 3.2% over the previous year, even though the COLA went down from 8.7%. In other words, someone would have gotten $10,320 if they had gotten $10,000 in 2023.
The Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) for 2024 was set at 3.2%, a decrease from the 8.7% COLA in 2023. This increase translates into a rise in Social Security and SSDI payouts, so someone receiving $10,000 in 2023 would have received $10,320 in 2024.
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Although there are predictions for 2025, the final decision on COLA will only be made after all data is gathered by October 2024. The Senior Citizens League forecasts a potential COLA decrease to 2.57% for 2025, anticipating lower inflation. If this holds true, a person receiving $10,000 in 2024 would receive $10,257 in 2025.
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