Social Security 2026 COLA Update: New Prediction Says 2.3% Increase Likely

Social Security 2026 COLA: Millions of retired Americans depend on Social Security for essentials like food, housing, and healthcare. Each year, benefits increase through a Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) based on inflation, announced in October and applied in January. For 2025, the COLA increase was 2.5%. The Senior Citizens League now predicts a slightly lower 2.3% increase for 2026, up 0.1% from their previous estimate.

According to News Week, TSCL Executive Director Shannon Benton said in a press release: “While TSCL supports President Trump’s goals of returning manufacturing and strategic production to American shores, we can’t accept the short-term consequences for seniors. We call on the administration to immediately make exceptions to the tariffs for drugs, medical equipment, and essential everyday goods that many seniors already struggle to afford.”

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Why the COLA Estimate Changed

TSCL updates its prediction every month using a special model. This model looks at many economic indicators, like the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners (CPI-W), interest rates set by the Federal Reserve, and the national unemployment rate. The current 2.3% estimate is based on CPI-W data from March 2025.

But there could be more changes coming. In April, the U.S. government announced a new round of tariffs extra taxes on goods from other countries. These tariffs haven’t shown up yet in the CPI-W numbers, but TSCL expects their effects to start appearing in the next few months. That could lead to even higher inflation and may cause TSCL to adjust the COLA estimate again later this year.

How Tariffs Could Affect Seniors

One big concern is how these tariffs could hurt seniors who depend on Social Security. TSCL Executive Director Shannon Benton explained the risks clearly. She said, “Placing broad-based tariffs on goods from numerous countries could have a profoundly negative impact on the daily lives of seniors, including the costs of drugs and medical equipment that many seniors rely on.”

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Benton also warned that the import taxes may keep food prices high, increase the cost of auto insurance, and lead to even more inflation. All of these things hit seniors especially hard because many live on fixed incomes and can’t easily adjust their budgets.

There’s more worrying news too. The Journal of the American Medical Association recently reported that up to 400 drug products from Canada could be affected by the new tariffs. And even more medications and medical supplies might be impacted from countries like China, India, and Mexico. This could cause prices to go up for many of the items that older people depend on most.

What the Government Is Planning

Former President Donald Trump announced plans to place tariffs on goods from more than 180 countries. He also talked about creating a 10% “baseline” tariff on all imports. After facing strong criticism from Republicans and economic advisers, he decided to pause the tariffs for 90 days and allow for a lower “reciprocal” tariff rate of 10%.

It’s not yet clear what effect these moves will have on inflation. But if inflation goes up, it could raise the COLA rate even more. On the other hand, if inflation stays low, the 2.3% estimate might stick.

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October 2025 Announcement

The Social Security Administration will officially announce the 2026 COLA increase in October 2025. The updated payment amounts will begin in January 2026. Until then, estimates like TSCL’s 2.3% projection help give people an idea of what to expect. Still, these numbers can change based on what happens in the economy over the coming months.

Earlier, experts were expecting the COLA for 2026 to be around 2.2%. That would have made it the lowest increase in three years. But now with TSCL raising their forecast to 2.3%, there’s a small improvement although still less than the 2.5% increase retirees saw in 2025. Many seniors may still feel the pinch because prices for essentials like healthcare, rent, and groceries continue to rise.