Social Security COLA 2026 Prediction: Social Security recipients might get a 2.8% rise in their monthly checks next year according to new estimates. This prediction came after the latest inflation report but, experts warn that most of the increase will likely be eaten up by Medicare costs. The Social Security Administration will announce the official 2026 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) in October.
How is the COLA Calculated?
Analysts often forecast the COLA using monthly consumer price data. In the month of August, annual inflation rose 2.9% up from 2.7% in July, making it the highest inflation this year, reported US today. The actual rate which excludes food and energy, went up to 3.1%,
For comparison, Social Security recipients got a 2.5% increase in 2025, following a 3.2% rise in 2024. The 2025 increase was the smallest since 2021. More than 74.5 million people currently receive Social Security.
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Mary Johnson, an independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst said that COLA increase won’t give seniors much relief. Ramsey Alwin, president of the National Council on Aging, added, “The estimated COLA might reflect the inflation rate, but it doesn’t reflect the true cost of aging well in America. The Medicare premium will likely eat up the little extra money they receive.”
Many experts and senior advocacy groups think the 2026 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) will be between 2.7% and 2.8%.
The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) now estimates 2.7%, looking at recent inflation trends. Mary Johnson, a policy analyst, says 2.8% is possible if inflation does not slow down, especially since the CPI-W for the third quarter supports that level.
If the COLA comes out at 2.7% the average Social Security monthly payment would rise by about $54, going from roughly $2,008 to around $2,062. If it reaches 2.8%, the increase could be a little higher about $54.70, though the difference is very small.
Johnson notes that for a 2.7% increase to happen, “there would have to be virtually no inflation growth at all in September.”
How Medicare will Affect the COLA Increase?
A 2.8% COLA means the average Social Security benefit would rise by just over $52 per month. The average benefit in August was $1,864.87, according to Social Security data. Johnson said, “That’s apt to look pretty underwhelming to most Social Security recipients.”
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Medicare Part B premiums are expected to rise by $21.50 to $206.50 per month from $185.00, one of the largest increases in history. Part D prescription drug premiums may also go up. The new rules for drug plans in 2026 could allow premiums to increase as much as $50 per month up from $35 this year. Over 33 million Medicare beneficiaries are on Part D plans in 2025.
Rising Poverty Among Seniors
Poverty among seniors are increasing. The Census Bureau reported that 65 and older saw their poverty rate rise from 14.2% to 15% in 2024, the only age group with an increase. Claire Casey, president of the AARP Foundation, said, “The Census report just made it clear: low-income seniors are falling behind. People over 65 were the only age group to have their poverty rates increase, with nearly a million more seniors falling into poverty in 2024. More work needs to be done so everyone can age with dignity and security.”
Alwin added that “a few extra dollars (from COLA) won’t begin to give them true financial security.”
