Social Security COLA 2026: Why the Next Increase Might Be the Lowest in Years?

Social Security COLA 2026: Many people who get Social Security in the U.S. feel disappointed after hearing news about the cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for 2026. This yearly increase is supposed to help their benefits keep up with inflation. But in 2026, it might be the smallest bump in several years, which means their monthly payments won’t grow much.

This possible low increase is making people question why it’s happening, and some point to decisions made during Donald Trump’s second time in office. The COLA affects people who are retired, have disabilities, or get benefits as family members. Mary Johnson, a Social Security and Medicare policy analyst, shared that “the cost-of-living adjustment could be 2.4% in 2026, according to new projections.” That would be even lower than the 2.5% increase expected in 2025, and the smallest increase since 2021.

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Why Is the Increase So Low?

The government uses inflation numbers from the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) to figure out how much to raise benefits. They compare prices from July, August, and September of the current year to the same time last year. If prices haven’t gone up much, then the COLA stays low. And if prices don’t rise at all, there might be no increase.

Right now inflation based on the CPI-W only rose about 2.1% in the past 12 months. That small jump is why the 2026 COLA will likely be low too.

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Even though the numbers look small now, experts say things could change in the next few months. If tariffs go up, prices for goods could rise too. That would push inflation higher, which could raise the COLA estimate. Also, Trump signed an order to lower how much Medicare and Medicaid pay for drugs by trying to match U.S. prices with those in other countries. While that change won’t directly affect the COLA number, it might help people save money on their medications.